Braves Series Preview: A Playoff Atmosphere

The Atlanta Braves won a title in 2021 and have had more than 100 winning seasons since then. But this year they have been plagued by injuries, most notably an ACL injury to Ronald Acuña Jr. who ended his season in May. Star pitcher Spencer Strider and All-Star third baseman Austin Riley are also out, but the team has gotten back several other key players.

Kansas City Royals (85-74) vs. Atlanta Braves (86-71) in Truist Park, Cumberland, Georgia

Royals: 4.59 runs scored/game (13th in MLB), 4.01 runs allowed/game (6th)

Braves: 4.38 points scored/game (15th), 3.78 points allowed/game (2nd)

The Braves got off to a great 26-13 start, but have only been 60-58 since then. They are currently just one game behind the Mets and Diamondbacks for the final National League playoff spot. The race was thrown into chaos this week when the final two games of the Mets/Braves series were postponed to a doubleheader on Monday due to bad weather from Hurricane Helene. The Braves need to beat the Mets to maintain their head-to-head tiebreaker, but they also need to win these games against the Royals to ensure they don’t get eliminated before they even get a chance to play the Mets. So the entire baseball world could focus on Friday’s game between the Royals and Braves.

The Braves rank fourth in baseball in home runs and Marcell Ozuna’s 39 home runs rank fifth in baseball. Braves hitters haven’t done their damage at home, however; only 39 percent of their home runs came at Truist Park and they average just 3.9 runs per game at home compared to 4.8 on the road.

Ramón Laureano has revived his career since signing with the Braves, and he is hitting .319/.351/.550 against righties this year. Former Royals slugger Jorge Soler is hitting .237/.348/.489 with 9 home runs in 44 games since rejoining the Braves, with whom he won 2021 World Series MVP honors.

Catcher Sean Murphy has been on a downward spiral, hitting .119/.211/.224 in his last 19 games. Jarred Kelenic is hitting just .176/.247/.338 since the All-Star break. Former Royals speedster Whit Merrifield is hitting .248/.348/.336 in 41 games since joining Atlanta.

The Braves have stolen the fewest bases in baseball and have the fourth fewest putouts on bases. Matt Olson is a Gold Glover at first base, Gio Urshela has been a defensive upgrade at third since he was signed, and Michael Harris III is great in center.

The starting pitching matchup situation is very fluid right now. We know that Brady Singer will face Max Fried on Friday night. The Braves have not announced any starters for Saturday or Sunday, but manager Brian Snitker has said they will use Chris Sale if they are eliminated, hoping they can save him for the Mets series.

Reynaldo López is ready to come off the injured list, but he could be used outside the pen or for the Mets series. Rookie Spencer Schwellenbach and veteran Charlie Morton were originally slated to pitch this series, so I’m guessing they’ll go the rest of the series unless Sale is needed. And of course, if the Royals clinch a playoff spot on Friday, they’ll likely rest Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans for the Wild Card round.

Fried is a three-time Gold Glove winner, was an All-Star this season and currently ranks ninth in fWAR among National League starting pitchers and seventh in ERA. He has gone six or more innings in 18 of his 28 starts, including his last five appearances. Lefties are hitting .321/.397/.455 against him, compared to .207/.273/.284 from righties. Opponents are hitting just .146 against his curveball and he has a 59 percent groundball rate, the highest in baseball.

Schewellenbach is originally a second-round pick out of Nebraska (he wasn’t at Alex Gordon’s wedding) and was great in his rookie campaign. Since the All-Star break, he has a 2.59 ERA in 11 starts. The right-hander has excellent command and has not issued more than three walks in a game all season. He throws a four-seamer, yard slider, cutter, curve, splitter at 96 mph, and his sinker generates a 47 percent whiff rate.

Morton also relies heavily on a curve, throwing it 42 percent of the time, the most in baseball. The 40-year-old fared much better at home with a 3.54 ERA at Truist compared to 4.75 on the road. His groundball percentage of 45.9 percent ranks seventh among starters. In five career starts against the Royals, he is 2-2 with a 4.15 ERA.

The Braves have a very good bullpen with a 3.30 ERA, the second-highest strikeout rate and the second-lowest walk rate. They occur least on zero days of rest. Closer Raisel Iglesias has the third most saves in the National League, converting 32 of 35 chances. He has allowed a hard-hit rate of 23.4 percent, eighth-lowest among relievers. Joe Jiménez has one of the best sliders in the game, with opponents hitting just .143 against it with a 40 percent whiff rate. Aaron Bummer has a 60 percent groundball rate, seventh highest among relievers. Lefty Dylan Lee has a reverse split, and lefties have hit him well with a .270/.270/.487 line.

With Hurricane Helene hitting the Southeast, baseball is a lower priority than everyone’s safety and well-being. The Royals have arrived safely in Atlanta and the weather is clearing for baseball to be played. Friday’s match could be an intense one, with a lot at stake. The play-offs officially start next week, but there will be a play-off atmosphere this weekend.