San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks odds, picks and predictions

The San Diego Padres (91-68) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (88-71) begin a 3-game series on Friday at Chase Field in Phoenix. The first pitch is scheduled for 9:40 PM ET (MLB Network/ESPN+). Let’s round up the MLB odds from BetMGM Sportsbook Padres vs. Diamondbacks chances and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: 5-5 draw

The Padres lost the final two games in a three-game set against the Dodgers in Los Angeles after winning the series opener 4-2 on Tuesday. San Diego lost 7-2 on Thursday as a slight underdog (-106), while the Over (8.5) cashed. That stopped an 8-0-1 run for the Under dating back to September 15.

The Diamondbacks stopped a three-game losing streak with an 8-2 victory against the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday as heavy favorites (-256), while the Over (9) cashed. The total stands at a 3-0-1 run for the D-backs.

These teams haven’t met since July 5-7 in San Diego, when Arizona played two of three games at Petco Park. The Over won all three meetings in that series, with the Snakes averaging 8.0 runs per game (RPG) and the Padres averaging 5.3 RPG.

The last time these teams met in Phoenix was May 3-5, when the Padres won two of three games. The Over also cashed in two of those three trips. The Over is on a 6-0 run while winning 8 of the past 9 in this series.

Padres at Diamondbacks predicted starters

RHP Yu Darvish vs. RHP Merrill Kelly

Darvish (6-3, 3.18 ERA) is making his 16th start. He has a 1.06 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 76 1/3 IP.

• Last start: No decision, 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H (2 solo HR), 0 BB, 9 K in 4-2 home win vs. Chicago White Sox Sunday
• 2024 Road Splits: 3-0, 2.05 ERA, 22 IP, 5 ER, 16 H, 3 HR, 4 BB, 21 K, .203 opponents batting average (OBA), 0.91 WHIP in 4 starts
• Last 7 games: 3-2, 4.04 ERA, 35 2/3 IP, 16 ER, 34 H, 7 BB, 37 K, 1.15 WHIP
• Career vs. Diamondbacks: 8-4, 3.55 ERA, 101 1/3 IP, 40 ER, 85 H, 15 HR, 35 BB, 131 K, 1.18 WHIP, 11.6 K/9 in 18 starts

Kelly (5-0, 3.71 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 68 IP.

• Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 5-0 road win vs. Milwaukee Brewers last Saturday
• Home Splits 2024: 2-0, 3.55 ERA, 33 IP, 13 ER, 7 HR, 8 BB, 23 K, .228 OBA, 1.09 WHIP in 6 starts
• Last 7 games: 2-0, 4.70 ERA, 38 1/3 IP, 20 ER, 10 BB, 32 K, 1.28 WHIP
• Career vs. Padres: 9-3, 3.05 ERA, 82 2/3 IP, 28 ER, 11 HR, 31 BB, 78 K, 1.19 WHIP in 15 starts

Who goes to the garden?? Here’s an overview of today best home run props with our top picks. Includes the BetMGM Bonus Code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first bet offer.

Padres on Diamondbacks odds

Powered by BetMGM Sportsbook; access the USA TODAY sports scoring and sports betting hub for a complete list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 8:56 am ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Padres +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Diamondbacks -125 (Bet $125 to win $100)
• Run Line (RL)/Against the Spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-200) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+165)
• Top/Bottom (O/U): 9 (E: -105 | U: -115)

Padres at Diamondbacks picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 4, Diamondbacks 3

Moneyline

The PADRES (+105) are a solid road dog behind veteran Darvish as they look to snap a two-game losing streak and build some momentum heading into the postseason.

The Diamondbacks (-125) aren’t playing well because of Kelly. Although he is undefeated in five decisions this season, he was pulled from his most recent start due to cramps. It is uncertain how long he will be able to go and how effective he will be.

Run line/Against the spread

The Padres +1.5 (-200) are a bit too expensive for a standalone bet, if you like a bit of certainty. However, as part of a multi-leg parlay, throwing it in isn’t the end of the world.

The Padres have won Darvish’s last four starts since returning from injury, so they are playing much better on the surface.

PASSAGE.

Top/Bottom

UNDER 9 (-115) is a solid play in a game that should have a playoff feel. The Padres are already in the postseason field and the Diamondbacks are a good bet to get one of the other Wild Card spots.

While the Under have clinched six consecutive meetings, these teams haven’t played each other since early July, so that can be thrown away. More importantly, the Under is 8-1-1 for the Padres in the last ten games.

And while the Diamondbacks have cashed high at a 3-0-1 clip over the last four games, the Under is 3-1 over the last four games.

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