Picks, odds and predictions for Gameweek 6

This article is part of our Football Picks series.

The program for the rest of the season is being shaped. After the UEFA Europa League was given its own week last week, this will change in the future. In addition, the Conference League also starts next week. After this weekend, the UEFA competition is in full swing, while the EFL Cup is still going strong with the Round of 16 taking place at the end of October.

Sometimes rest can be useful for the smaller teams and you can find an edge in betting. Sometimes.

Want more Premier League bets? Watch Kits & Wagers, a weekly betting show, where Adam and Chris Owen offer six bets from six different matches. Adam also has a separate Corners & Wagers show where he just talks about corners.

Balance: 7-6. $140 up with $100 bets.

EPL best bets for Crystal Palace at Everton

2-3 goals scored between Everton and Crystal Palace +100

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This feels similar to recent matches in the Premier League, where two slightly struggling, mediocre teams battle to a draw. It feels like another 1-1 match and that’s why the odds are quite low: +400 to score. If Everton go on you know they will concede a goal. If Crystal Palace are up by a goal, Everton will likely allow another.

I took this bet a few weeks ago in the match between Palace and Leicester City and lost after Palace escaped with an injury time PK in a 2-2 draw. I feel the same way about this, as neither offense is really clicking and both defenses are allowing at least one goal. Palace are coming from a clean sheet against Manchester United, but that was a completely different game. Neither of these teams will completely dominate for 45 minutes. I’m also willing to take the corners for a likely back-and-forth match, but I want to try another target tape bet with 1-1 and 2-1 as the most likely results.

EPL best bets for Leicester City at Arsenal

SGP: Arsenal beat Leicester + Arsenal O2.5 Corners 1H + No BTTS = +140

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Arsenal survive without Martin Odegaard and that’s all you can ask for as a fan after traveling to Tottenham, Atalanta and Manchester City in the same week. A home game against Bolton in the cup tie allowed Mikel Arteta to rotate most of his squad and this match is one of the better of the season.

Leicester City have fought their way to a total of three points and perhaps should have more, but this game is a different story. Even at home they were outclassed by Tottenham and Aston Villa for the majority of those games and a trip to the Emirates is unlikely to happen unless Jamie Vardy comes through with a counter.

I expect Arsenal to be closer to last season’s team, who dominated possession and were on the front foot from the start. Steve Cooper is likely to let his team sit back as much as possible with a view to counter-attacking.

The big question with this bet and Arsenal getting a clean sheet is whether David Raya is healthy enough to start as he was brilliant to open the season.

EPL best bets for Tottenham Hotspur at Manchester United

SGP: ‘Yes’ Both teams to score + Both Man Utd/Spurs O3.5 Corners = +100

In the weekend’s match, both teams come from the home matches of the Europa League. Manchester United disappointed with a 1-1 draw against FC Twente on Wednesday, while Tottenham recorded a nice win against Qarabag despite falling behind early on Thursday.

United have played better of late, but you could argue that this fixture is based on beating Southampton and Barnsley by a combined 10-0 scoreline. Still, they are at least limiting opponents more than last season, which should help in this spot. Tottenham have controlled games often this season, but they have struggled to consistently get three points and convert chances.

It could be a game where both teams struggle to score again, but I think both teams make enough mistakes that there will be plenty of openings. United’s allowed goal against Twente is also in my memory because it contained a whole series of mistakes on their part.

Ultimately, I’d be surprised if either team won 2-0, so I’ll take both teams to score. I also think there will be a lot of back and forth, which will lead to corners for both sides. I think both teams can hit more than five or six corners, so if you want more money, go that route.

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EPL betting on matchday 6

• 2-3 goals scored between Everton and Crystal Palace +100
• SGP: Arsenal beat Leicester + Arsenal O2.5 corners 1H + No BTTS = +140
• SGP: ‘Yes’ Both teams to score + Both Man Utd + Spurs O3.5 Corners = +100

Adam’s gambling history (for this article)

2023: 45-69-2. $1,482 less on $100 bets.
2022: 79-58-2. $2,281 up with $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. $222 up with $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. $228 up with $100 bets.

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