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Don’t Count Out Breece Hall, Even in a Tough Match: The Wrong Read, Week 4

Don’t Count Out Breece Hall, Even in a Tough Match: The Wrong Read, Week 4

Vaseline 1 month ago

Welcome to The wrong reading. This weekly article uses advanced team-level statistics to preview the week’s upcoming matches. The goal is to try to understand how an upcoming matchup might go in terms of each offense’s ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be if they try to succeed? How much will they be able to run the ball?

It’s impossible to answer these questions definitively, but by examining the advanced metrics we can better understand the dynamics that may not show up in the box score every week. We can use these statistics to find hidden signals that can indicate how a team wants to play football and how likely they are to play the way they want against an upcoming opponent.

The figures below include data from weeks 1 to 3 and the last three weeks of 2023. This means that workforce changes will not be fully reflected in these figures – in cases where that matters I will point out. But we can still get a good idea of ​​what to expect from each of these teams. I’ll highlight the most notable features of the matchup below each image.

One note about the images below: I’m trying something new with the rankings and color coding. All rankings and colors are now based on the offense’s point of view. So a No. 1 ranking in a defensive metric indicates they are the easiest matchup for opponents to deal with. Likewise, a No. 32 ranking indicates a team’s toughest matchup. This makes it much easier to look at the images and see which matchups are most favorable for the offense.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This play-off rematch is a study in contrasts, especially in the ground game. The Eagles rank second in both EPA per rush (0.04) and yards per play (5.02). (We go to the Bucs’ rushing play below.)

Don’t Count Out Breece Hall, Even in a Tough Match: The Wrong Read, Week 4

Tampa Bay presents a challenge to beat, although it limits yards both before and after contact. Saquon Barkley should do some damage on a handful of explosive runs.

In the passing game, the Eagles present an interesting puzzle. They are second in the league in time allowed for pressure, but that only means that Jalen hurts has the ability to hold the ball even longer. Only two teams have a longer average time to throw.

The Bucs are a stingy pass defense that often blitzes and gets to the opposing quarterback quickly. Philadelphia will hope their running game is up to the task in this game, especially without it DeVonta Smith and possibly also without AJ Brown. Dallas Goedert could be the center of the defense again, but he could also be the center of the defense.

On the other side of the ball, Mayfield’s Bakery The resurgence in Tampa hasn’t quite carried over into 2024. The Bucs rank 14th in EPA per pass (-0.04) and 17th in yards per play.

Only four teams get to the QB faster than the Eagles’ pass rush — bad news for a Tampa Bay offensive line that allows the third-fastest time in the league to generate pressure. Tampa Bay would like to take some pressure off the passing game against an Eagles-run defense that gives away rushing yards freely. The problem is the Bucs don’t seem to want to accept them.

Denver Broncos at New York Jets

Many of us had high hopes for Denver’s passing attack. Here’s hoping it’s just an example of a rookie needing a few games to acclimatize. The Broncos rank 26th in EPA per pass (-0.19) and 26th in yards per play (5.35).

They face one of the toughest challenges in Week 4. No team allows fewer yards per play or less EPA per pass than the Jets. No team plays tighter coverage. New York doesn’t blitz often, but they still generate a pressure rate of over 40%.

The Jets’ own offensive struggles are well known, though the numbers below are only partially reflective Aaron Rodgers play. Regardless, New York ranks 25th in EPA per pass (-0.18) and 27th in yards per play, and Denver’s pass defense presents a tough matchup.

The Jets’ usually strong attack is also being severely tested. They rank eighth in rushing yards over expectation (13.2) and only one team gains more yards after contact, but the Broncos are just as strong against the run as they are against the pass.

Only three teams allow a lower number of explosive runs than the Broncos. This doesn’t seem like the best match for it Breece Hall And Braelon Allen. On the other hand, we’ve seen explosive runners exploit Denver’s defense before. Hall is certainly talented enough to break off some long runs.

The Jets’ rush defense isn’t as strong, but the Broncos have struggled to move the ball on the ground so far in the young 2024 season.

Week 3 saw Tyler Badie got some crap, and he seemed like the most effective option. Still, he’s unlikely to play a major role in Denver’s crowded backfield in Week 4.