When can Tua Tagovailoa return and what’s next for the Dolphins?

MIAMI – Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa played a full season for the first time in his NFL career in 2023. He led the NFL in passing yards and led the league’s No. 1 offense to an 11-win season and an AFC wild-card berth.

The Dolphins rewarded him with a four-year, $212.1 million extension this offseason, hoping he and the team would take another step forward in 2024.

But the 2024 season sputtered at the start. Tagovailoa suffered the third documented concussion of his NFL career in a Week 2 loss to the Buffalo Bills. Days later, he was placed on injured reserve.

In the Dolphins’ first game without him, they lost 24-3 at the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. Backup quarterback Skylar Thompson was unimpressive, throwing for 107 yards before being knocked out of the game with a rib injury midway through the third quarter. Tim Boyle, his backup, didn’t fare much better, finishing the game completing 7 of 13 passes for 79 yards. The offense totaled 205 yards, nearly 200 yards off the 2023 season average.

The Dolphins are three games into a 17-game season, but are in a loaded AFC conference. With Tagovailoa out for at least the next three games, Miami’s offense faces an uncertain future.

With games against the Tennessee Titans, New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts and Arizona Cardinals ahead of a visit to the Bills on November 3, the Dolphins’ early schedule is favorable. But the quarterback situation has the potential to hold back one of the most expensive wide receiver rooms in the NFL ($48.7 million), limiting this offense as a whole.

With Tagovailoa’s future still uncertain, here’s what we know about where he and the Dolphins stand.

Tagovailoa attended the Dolphins game in Seattle last weekend. How long will he be on the injured reserve list and what are the hurdles he must overcome to return to play?

NFL rules state that a player placed on injured reserve must miss at least his team’s next four games – so Tagovailoa has three games remaining. The Dolphins play the Tennessee Titans and New England Patriots over the next two weeks before their Week 6 bye. The final game of that stretch is Oct. 20 at the Indianapolis Colts.

McDaniel has repeatedly said there is no timeline for Tagovailoa’s return. The Dolphins are focused on their franchise quarterback being healthy.

“The great thing about IR is there are no timelines for a month,” McDaniel said last week. “I always say that, but I’m not sure people fully understand it. If you create a timeline based on the information you have today, how much of whatever happens fulfills the prophecy of that timeline? And Is that the right thing?” ? Especially with competitors and so on, sometimes you can do more harm than good.

“The fact that he doesn’t have to worry about anything when it comes to timelines gives him a lot of strength as a human being to recover from injury, and that’s the only motivating factor you have when you’re dealing with players and their career and their injuries.”

If Tagovailoa is cleared to return, what will the Dolphins say about his future this season and beyond?

While they are focused on getting him back to full health, the Dolphins have not publicly suggested that Tagovailoa will not be their starting quarterback as long as his play warrants it.

What needs to change, however, is the way he protects himself in the future.

Tagovailoa’s most recent concussion occurred when he contacted Bills defenseman Damar Hamlin after looking for a first down. That’s not what he was coached for; specifically after suffering two confirmed concussions in 2022, Tagovailoa said if he runs in October, he is expected to slide.

“My coaches told me, ‘We never want you (initiating contact),’” Tagovailoa said. “Of course I understand that, due to the injury and what had happened prior to the concussion. But for me it’s football. You go out there and for me I can see the first in the cases and I want to do everything that I can go get it.”

McDaniel said prior to the Week 3 game at Miami that he understood why a player might make contact on a run, but he won’t tolerate this from his quarterbacks.

“I appreciate the competitive spirit and fighting for every yard, but I don’t coach quarterbacks to try to run over defenders,” McDaniel said. “But you’re trying to play a competitive sport where people are trying to tackle you with force and sometimes the competitiveness takes over. I don’t judge that so much, but I try to learn lessons and be able to articulate, ‘Okay, okay.’ , what can you do in the future?’ I don’t conform – I have the same philosophy. In this situation it might be better to identify the yard line and run or slide into space.”

If he is not medically cleared to play, what do the Dolphins owe Tagovailoa and how does this affect the salary cap? How will that figure change if he is acquitted but chooses to retire?

Tagovailoa’s extension includes $167.1 million in guaranteed money, of which $93.1 million was fully guaranteed at signing. If he is never medically cleared to play, he will be entitled to the full $167.1 million. In that case, the Dolphins are insured for up to $49.3 million of Tagovailoa’s contract, although it is unknown whether concussions are excluded from the Dolphins’ insurance policy.

Two insurance industry sources with no direct knowledge of Miami’s policy told ESPN that they would expect concussions to be excluded from Miami’s policy coverage on Tagovailoa, based on their experience working with insurance companies.

If Tagovailoa is medically cleared to play and retires, he will lose his right to all of his remaining guaranteed money. The most likely outcome in this scenario is that Tagovailoa and the Dolphins reach some sort of good-faith settlement — with the team not attempting to recoup any portion of Tagovailoa’s $42 million signing bonus. An NFL consulting source with no direct knowledge of the Dolphins’ plan suggested to ESPN that if Tagovailoa were to wait until after the season to retire, the Dolphins could advise him to do so after June 1, which would give them a maximum amount of $ would yield 8.4 million. in 2025. The remaining $25.2 million would then count toward the 2026 salary cap.

The “likely outcome” if Tagovailoa were to retire, the source said, is that the Dolphins would allow him to keep his signing bonus and possibly an additional settlement – although this likely wouldn’t be a significant amount relative to his contract.

Neither Tagovailoa nor any of his Dolphins teammates or coaches have suggested he plans to retire.

If he doesn’t play anymore, where does that leave the Dolphins?

Tagovailoa’s retirement would immediately disrupt the team’s timeline as a Super Bowl contender. Miami is built to win now, with skill players like Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane all under team control for seasons to come. But the supporting cast likely won’t matter without the right quarterback.

Thompson, Boyle and Tyler Huntley are the Dolphins’ current quarterbacks, but if Tagovailoa doesn’t return, Miami could turn to a veteran like Ryan Tannehill, trade for a veteran like Jimmy Garoppolo or trade for a young quarterback looking for a new situation in Bryce Jong.

Thompson has one year left on his rookie contract, but it’s unlikely he would enter the 2025 season as Miami’s starter in this scenario. If Tagovailoa doesn’t play again this season, Miami could earn a high pick in the 2025 NFL draft and use that selection on a quarterback. Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, Miami’s Cam Ward and Georgia’s Carson Beck are among the top QBs available in the 2025 draft.

Either way, the quarterback position should be addressed without Tagovailoa. Failure to do so could result in a reset of what was once a promising rebuild.

If Thompson comes back from the rib injury, will he start again?

This is the least experienced quarterback room the Dolphins have drafted since Tagovailoa was drafted fifth overall in 2020. When the Dolphins signed Huntley from the Ravens practice squad, McDaniel said the move was intended to create depth behind Thompson.

However, he left the door open for a match. Especially after Thompson and the Dolphins’ performance against Seattle in Week 3, Huntley was able to see the field quickly. McDaniel described Thompson’s rib injury as “painful” and the team should know the full extent of it on Monday.

“I think it helps the dynamic of the room to get a guy with starting history to this team,” McDaniel said last week after adding Huntley, “and adds another guy who is a signal is that a team can I was happy to add – what we could do in the quarterback room – by adding Boyle, but I think (by adding Huntley) it’s more direct to support Skylar and then we have to you always let the competition play when it is out on the field, but this was certainly a deep step.”

Miami could also turn to Boyle, who already has starting experience. He has completed 102 of 157 passes for 853 yards and 4 touchdowns against 9 interceptions in five career starts for the Green Bay Packers and New York Jets. He orchestrated the two longest drives of the day for the Dolphins in relief of Thompson on Sunday.

Tagovailoa could still return for the final 11 games of the regular season. Even if the Dolphins are 1-5 by the time he plays again, Miami could have an outside chance to advance to the AFC playoff. However, with games against the Packers, Jets, Texans, 49ers, Browns and Jets to end the season once again, it would be difficult for the Dolphins to reach the postseason for a third straight year.