Kirk develops in the Atlantic Ocean as hurricane season gets underway

This system should gradually organize over the next few days as it drifts northwest and exceeds sea surface temperatures in the mid-80s. With a 40 percent chance of further development, looming questions remain as the prediction models are divided.

One unknown is how influential an approaching trough and surface cold front later this week will be on the system’s strength and track. That will depend on how deep the tropical system forms ahead of the boundary and strengthens to combat the approaching front.

Either way, it looks like the Gulf Coast can expect at least heavy tropical rain showers later this weekend and next week, which could cause major problems. Right now, Florida may be the most likely target, but the forecast could very well change.

Kirk is ahead of schedule

Kirk, the eleventh storm of the season, is likely to become the seventh hurricane by midweek, a milestone that usually doesn’t occur until mid-November — a testament to how exceptionally warm water has quickly fueled tropical systems to reach hurricane status as wind shear is minimal. Such was the case with Helene, which quickly became twice as intense within its life cycle, reaching a speed of at least 55 miles per hour in the space of 24 hours.

The good news is that Kirk should remain at sea and not have any direct impact on the American coast.

With six hurricanes already formed, the hurricane season is nearly three weeks ahead of the 30-year climatological average for hurricanes to date. All of these new tropical systems have also catapulted the current season back to an above-average pace in terms of named storms at this point in the season. The average date for the 11th named storm is October 2, which makes Kirk a few days early.

Isaac and Joyce

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Hurricane Isaac was downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone on Monday as it heads into Iceland or the United Kingdom this weekend, and Tropical Depression Joyce will most likely continue to weaken as both remain essentially fishing storms.

Separately, the fifth and final system is a disturbance that pursues Kirk shortly off the African coast. With an 80 percent chance of development over the next week, this low-pressure area will slowly move westward over the main developing region and could turn into a depression within a few days.

October is typically the third most active month of the Atlantic hurricane season, producing an average of two named storms, one of which develops into a hurricane. With the continued shift towards La Niña and generally less wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, all signs point to a very active month.

Helene

Helene’s death toll rose to 107 in the Southeast Monday afternoon. Much of the South, including parts of Appalachia and Florida’s Gulf Coast, continues disaster cleanup after massive flooding devastated cities and infrastructure.

Unfortunately, the rain isn’t over yet: the waning energy of Helene’s remnants still maintains a mild to moderate flood risk over portions of the Blue Ridge Mountains stretching across western North Carolina, Virginia and parts of West Virginia through this evening.

No heavy precipitation is expected, but because the ground in hard-hit areas is already saturated, a half inch to an inch of rain will certainly be enough to continue flooding areas until the remnants of Helene finally give up on Tuesday.

Ken Mahan can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Instagram @kenmahantheweatherman.