Full coverage of the Detroit Tigers playoffs with 3 games to go

DETROIT – The final series of the regular season is about to begin and the Detroit Tigers are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot.

Detroit just completed an electric sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays, highlighted by a thrilling comeback on Thursday afternoon.

The Tigers enter the final three games against the Chicago White Sox with their playoff fate in their own hands, a whopping 11 games above .500.

Here’s a full look at the playoff picture heading into the weekend.

Minnesota twins

It wouldn’t be an exaggeration to say that basically everything this month went according to the Tigers’ wishes, even the things out of their control.

The Twins lost two of three games at home to the lowly Marlins this week, including Thursday night’s devastating 13-inning loss.

The loss to Minnesota dropped the Tigers’ magic number to one, meaning they could clinch a spot at Comerica Park on Friday night if they can beat Garrett Crochet and the White Sox.

The only hope for Minnesota now is for the Tigers or Royals to finish the season 0-3. Since the Twins own the head-to-head tiebreaker of both teams, they would enter the playoffs if they finished 3-0 in that scenario.

Kansas City Royals

Just when it looked like the Tigers would blow past Kansas City into the second wild-card spot, the Royals found a way to pull off three tough wins in Washington to keep pace.

Both the Tigers and Royals enter the final series of the season with a record of 85-74. Even though Kansas City owns the tiebreaker, you have to like Detroit’s chances to finish on top.

While the Tigers host the 120-loss White Sox this weekend, the Royals will travel to Atlanta for three games against the Braves.

Atlanta is currently one game behind both the New York Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks for the final two wild card spots in the National League. So there is even more at stake for them.

If the Royals can win two of three in Atlanta, they have a good chance of retaining the No. 2 wild card spot. If not, all the Tigers need to do is win their final home series to close the deal.

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles couldn’t figure out Gerrit Cole on Thursday night, so the dream of the wild-card round coming to Comerica Park lives on for another night.

Baltimore has a three-game lead over Detroit with three games remaining on the schedule. So the Tigers need to beat the White Sox and the Twins need to beat the Orioles to give Detroit the top wild card spot.

In the event that Kansas City also beat Atlanta, the Tigers would still win the tiebreaker due to a superior combined record against Kansas City and Baltimore.

The Tigers went 6-7 against Kansas City and 4-2 against Baltimore (10-9 overall).
The Royals went 7-6 against Detroit and 2-4 against Baltimore (9-10 overall).
The Orioles went 2-4 against Detroit and 4-2 against Kansas City (6-6 overall).

So as long as you think the Tigers can win one game against the White Sox this weekend, you should be rooting for the Twins to beat the Orioles.

Sailors of Seattle

Yesterday we officially said goodbye to the Red Sox and Rays. Today the Mariners sail into the sunset.

When the Tigers and Royals won Thursday afternoon, the Mariners were officially eliminated from the playoffs because they don’t own tiebreakers.

New York Yankees

Remember that slim chance the Tigers could play in New York for the wild-card round? That has now disappeared.

The Yankees clinched the AL East Division with their win over the Orioles on Thursday, so they will have a bye.

Tie breakers

Even though the Mariners are out of the playoffs, they could still prove relevant in a tiebreaker situation as they are three games behind the Tigers and Royals and tied with the Twins.

I think Tigers fans should technically be rooting for the Mariners to beat the Oakland A’s. If the Tigers and Royals are both swept this weekend and the Twins lose at least once, the Tigers will lose a tiebreaker to the Royals but win a hypothetical three-team tiebreaker with the Royals and Mariners.

This is how all possible ties would play out:

Tigers and Orioles: Tigers win the tiebreak.
Tigers and royals: Royals win the tiebreaker.
Tigers and twins: Twins win the tiebreaker.
Tigers and Sailors: Tigers win the tiebreak.
Tigers, Royals and Twins: Twins win the tiebreaker, Royals come second.
Tigers, Royals and Mariners: Tigers win the tiebreak.
Tigers, twins and sailors: Twins win the tiebreaker, Tigers come second.
Tigers, Royals, Twins and Mariners: Twins win the tiebreaker, Tigers come second.
Tigers, Royals and Orioles: Tigers win the tiebreak.

Which has already been decided

The last two division titles came Thursday night, as the Yankees and Dodgers defeated their respective second-place teams to put them out of reach.

Here’s what we know for sure about the playoffs:

The Yankees and Guardians have the two first-round byes in the AL.
The Astros are the No. 3 seed in the AL and will host the third wild-card team in the first round.
The Orioles have secured a wild card spot.
The Dodgers and Phillies will have the two first-round byes in the NL.
The Brewers are the No. 3 seed in the NL and will host the third wild-card team in the first round.
The Padres have secured a wild card spot.

The Yankees have a one-game lead over Cleveland for the top seed in the AL, and they also own the head-to-head tiebreaker. This weekend, New York hosts the Pirates and Cleveland hosts the Astros.

The Dodgers have a one-game lead over the Phillies for the top seed in the NL, but the Phillies own the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Dodgers travel to Colorado this weekend and the Phillies go to Washington.

Two of the Royals, Tigers and Twins will make the playoffs, with one left out.

Two of the Mets, Diamondbacks and Braves make the playoffs, with one left out.

Because the Mets-Braves games were rained out the past two days, those teams will return to Atlanta for a doubleheader on Monday. Monday would be a day off between the end of the regular season and the wild card round.

The Mets are in Milwaukee this weekend for three games against the Brewers, while the Diamondbacks host the Padres and the Braves host the Royals.

In short

It’s all over except the champagne baths. The Tigers need just one win over the worst team in the league to make this unimaginable run to the postseason a reality.

The Tigers hope to qualify on Friday or Saturday, so they don’t have to use Tarik Skubal on the last day of the regular season. That would allow them to save him for the first game of the wild card round.

Here’s how I would rank the possible remaining outcomes, in order of likelihood.

Tigers get the second wild card spot and play in Baltimore.
Tigers get the third wild card spot and play in Houston.
Tigers get the first wild card spot and host the Orioles.
Tigers miss the playoffs.

I made the Tigers missing the playoffs less likely to get a home series. It seems more likely that the Twins and Tigers will win their series this weekend than the White Sox will upset the Tigers three times in a row.

Can the White Sox win a game or two? Certainly. They have Crochet on the mound on Friday, and there’s a chance Sunday won’t mean anything for the Tigers.

But with the way the Tigers are playing, there’s no reason to think they won’t find a way to get the deal done.