Folie à Deux’ Eyes Worldwide box office opening of $140 million

Todd Phillips’ musically infused sequel Joker: Folie à Deux opens this week and is currently not expected to match the business of the 2019 Warner Bros film jokerwhich ultimately became the second highest-grossing R-rated film of all time with $1.07 billion, scoring eleven Oscar nominations and winning two, including Best Actor for Joaquin Phoenix.

As for the sequel, it’s looking better at $140 million worldwide so far than domestically, with a now lower estimate of $55 million to $60 million from 4,000 U.S. theaters with all the tricks of Imax and PLF screens. The original domestic forecast was $70 million+ when the three-week tracking was reached.

The first joker surpassed the domestic projection of $80 million with the highest opening of all time at $96.2 million, and exceeded the global forecast of $155 million by $248.2 million (2019 figures not adjusted for inflation and currency fluctuations).

Still, with net production costs of over $190 million, Joker: Folie à Deux‘s expected things at this point are not bad for the exhibition, and not necessarily bad for the film itself. Who wouldn’t want a movie that grosses $55 million or $140 million at the October box office? Does anyone not want this? Why so serious, industry? Because from a business perspective they have expectations of the Dark Knight franchise for the sequel, and many need to remember that it is a sequel to an R-rated game. Taxi driver-esque social commentary starring a DC villain who happened to catch a wave and overachieved.

The question is whether fanboys will approve of a Gaga-Phoenix musical duet that is almost as dark in tone as the first film. No one expected the former joker to go wild in the opening; there was fear at the time that that would be the case Dark Knight stands up copycat shootings. All these concerns disappeared as soon as the film opened.

Similar to the first jokerWarner’s world premiere of this sequel in Venice, although that didn’t help with the reviews, which sit at 62% on Rotten Tomatoes (versus the first film’s 69% with critics). This hasn’t helped presales, which currently indicate a lower opening than $55 million, though sources believe Joker 2 can achieve the current forecast. Previews start Thursday at 3 p.m. in the States Joker 2 has the first choice for older men first, followed by younger men under 25 years old and then older women over 25 years old.

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Gaga’s only previous tentpole, the Oscar-winning one A star is bornopened to $42.9 million at the October 2018 box office. She looks best with that figure Joker 2which should be her best film opening in her own country.

Hoping to bring her Little Monsters to theaters, Gaga dropped a companion album to the film, Harlequinlast Friday.

Joker 2 could also score the best opening for a live musical that isn’t a Disney musical, possibly ahead of November 2018’s Bohemian rhapsodywith a $51 million start.

Joker: Folie à Deux launched Tuesday in its first offshore market, Korea, with a No. 1 start of $1.3 million. Please note that they are taking advantage of a local holiday. Korea was also the leading weekend opener jokerwhich was surprising at the time because it wasn’t clear how the darker elements of the film would play out there. This time it might be the musical factor that makes the audience lean forward. And this week there is another holiday on the program.

Overall, the rest of the offshore rollout begins in earnest on Wednesday in 14 markets, including major countries France and Italy. 45 more will be added on Thursday, with Germany, Australia, Brazil and Mexico among the majors. Spain and Great Britain will be in the picture on Friday.

The expectation for this first wave is $80M-$85M+ internationally. The 2019 joker opened to $139 million offshore in like-for-likes, coming off the heat of winning the Golden Lion of Venice.

After this weekend, Japan will be on deck on October 11 and China on October 16. As we have noted, the first will joker not released in China.

Meanwhile, DreamWorks Animation and Universal’s The wild robot It looks set for a second weekend near $20 million, down 45%, after overperforming to a $35 million opening. The Chris Sanders-directed film earned $2.2 million on Monday, for a running cume of $38 million.